Never Trade Luck for Skill
“NTL4S” is a saying I use often. Its sort of a term I use in jest – like Chris uses “take luck”. But, it reminds to be humble and remember although sometimes (maybe most times) things work out ok. But, there is an element of luck in (or no control over the) things we do / achieve. Josh’s erroneous investment in AIR turned out to be the best financial mistake he has made in his life (so far).
While in Angola, I made quite a few investments in both mutual funds and directly into stocks. Most of the stocks have done quite well and I have liquidated them when I felt they have reached “full value”. One stock I have been holding on to was JP Morgan. Although the name “rings a bell” with me, believe it is a well run international bank. Similar to all the other banks, however, it has been buffeted pretty hard by the market – although it has outperformed most of its competitors and seems to be gobbling up some of the victims of the financial debacle.
I have been wanting to sell JP Morgan for some time … but with the whipsawing of the market for the past year it has been difficult to find and execute a price I have been happy with. The stock has moved wildly and widely over the past year and has fluccuated between about $33 and $48 … mostly hovering around $40 then moving up or down based on market optimism or pessimism. FYI, I bought the stock at $37 and have received ~4%/pa dividends during my period of holding.
Most recently (last week) JP Morgan was about $35 …. then the Thursday rally … then the Friday rally when JP Morgan shot up over 15% opening to $48 on Friday morning. At $48 (the opening price) I decided it was time to cash in. I had a hard time logging on to my brokerage account and by the time I was in the system and ready to go the price was down to $45. ARGH !!!! So, like a lion I watched, monitored, and waited to pounce $45.50 … $45.75 …. $46 …. $45.25 … $44.80 … $45.75 … $46 … $46.25 …. BINGO !!! hit the sold button. But, by the time everything refreshed on the screen the price was $45.50. ARGH !!!! (maybe).
Turns out, except for the closing bell spike of $2 (to $47) … the $46.25 was the highest for the rest of the day. Yeah !!! And, when I received my sell confirmation there must have been a mini-spike that wasn’t shown on the ticker tape – because my price was actually $46.31. And, I felt very good about that.
Now for the rest of the story. On Monday, JP Morgan dropped like a rock in the opening minutes and went from $47 to $44 … then is slid for the rest of the day closing at about $40.50 …. down 14% for the day. As I said, NTL4S.
*** As for work and other topics, really nothing to “write home about”. All is fine here in Whoville.
ciao caio
